COP28 Targets Tripled Renewable Energy by 2030, Unveils Asia’s US$7bn Solar and US$58bn Wind Power Market

• 2 April 2024
• Construction Focus
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At the recent COP28 summit in Dubai, the world witnessed a monumental agreement among over 100 nations to triple renewable energy production by 2030. This ambitious pact, unparalleled in its scale and urgency, aims to nearly double the current annual growth rate of renewable sources like wind, solar, and geothermal power, heralding a decisive step towards combating climate change, according to an update report by Anergy Tracker Asia in January 2024.

The agreement states that signatories:

1. Commit to working together to triple the world’s installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030.
2. Agree to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030.
3. Collaborate on resilient value chains and technology development, including through voluntary transfer under mutually agreed terms and conditions.
4. Enhance technical support and capacity building for renewables and energy efficiency in developing economies.

As temperatures soared to all-time highs in 2023, the scientific community raised urgent alarms about the narrowing window to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The tripling of renewable energy capacity is viewed as a pivotal step in curtailing greenhouse gas emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this massive scale-up of renewables could prevent approximately 7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, translating to an average reduction of 1 billion tonnes per year.

However, the realisation of this ambitious goal hinges on the participation of Asia, a region historically lagging in renewable energy adoption yet being the world’s largest importer of coal and natural gas. Asia-Pacific alone recorded 17.96 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, spotlighting the need for a robust transition to cleaner energy sources within the continent.

Japan emerges as a beacon of success in the rapid expansion of renewable energy, having revolutionised its energy sector following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Through the installation of proactive renewable regulations, including a feed-in tariff incentive for solar production, Japan experienced a meteoric rise in solar power generation, marking a 7,000% increase within six years.

The urgency of this initiative stems from the alarming rise in global temperatures, with scientists warning that the window to limit warming to 1.5°C is rapidly closing. Increasing renewable energy capacity is identified as a critical strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, with projections suggesting that tripling renewables could prevent a staggering 7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.

However, the success of this ambitious goal hinges significantly on Asia, where many countries have historically lagged behind in renewable energy adoption. Despite being the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been slow to transition away from coal and natural gas.

Japan emerges as a beacon of hope in this transition, demonstrating the transformative potential of proactive renewable energy policies. Following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, Japan swiftly embraced renewables, implementing initiatives like feed-in tariffs that led to a remarkable 7,000% increase in solar power generation in just six years.

Conversely, Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest nation, notably abstained from a pivotal renewable energy agreement, reflecting its historical lag in renewable adoption. Instead, the country has embraced coal, witnessing an alarming 800% surge in coal power generation since 2000, while renewable growth remains stagnant. However, amidst this challenge, a groundbreaking partnership is emerging, aiming to revolutionize energy financing. To achieve Asia’s ambitious goal of tripling renewables by 2030, Indonesia and Japan must assume central roles. Notably, Indonesia’s coal plants, emitting a staggering 214 million tonnes of CO2 annually, just under Russia, underscore the urgency for transition. As one of the region’s major economies, Indonesia’s commitment to renewables is crucial for decarbonization efforts in Asia.

While Japan spearheads its offshore wind industry, neighbouring Taiwan emerges as a frontrunner in Asia’s renewable energy race. Expected to bolster its capacity by 6.6 GW by 2027, Taiwan’s commitment underscores the region’s shift towards sustainable energy sources. Moreover, South Korea and Vietnam are swiftly joining the offshore wind movement, aiming to harness their coastal potential. A report by Wood Mackenzie highlights Asia’s lucrative market, estimating the offshore floating wind sector’s worth at a staggering USD 58 billion, signaling substantial investment opportunities in the region’s renewable energy sector. The Asia Pacific solar power market is projected to attain a market valuation of US$ 678.81 billion in 2023.

Achieving the ambitious target of tripling renewables by 2030 demands substantial transformations across Asia, necessitating vast investments, grid enhancements, and intensified integration of solar and wind technologies. According to a recent report by EY, Asia faces formidable obstacles, including inadequate policy frameworks and legacy power structures that impede transition. These barriers hinder even basic actions, such as rooftop solar installations, and underscore the urgent need for policy reform.

• Energy and Environment